eToro – Forex Trading Forum

[BlueinGreen]

Hello Traders

yesterday the EURUSD had returned to the higher range level just a little under 1.5800
The 1.58 it-self is considered to be a resistance area, and a clear cross above it might lead us quickly to 1.59

The chances for a FED rate hike on next month's meeting is much lower right now compared to what it was two weeks ago. This is what keeps the dollar on the low right now.
If you will take a look at a daily AUDUSD chart you will notice it is on its way to the highest price level.

On the other hand, the story of a weak dollar has been for too long an international one, many countries are suffering from such low levels of the U,S currency.
We know that politicians and policy makers are closely monitoring the dollar moves, and a bigger drop in its value might just force some of them to take actions to stop it – we already heard FED officials taking a very aggressive tone with the issue last month.

for the current time, the dollar is still floating on its higher range, it awaits a clear signal from the Fed for a rate hike in the near future, without a clue, EURUSD is more likely to remain in this 1.55 – 1.59 range , or even try another go to its all time high at 1.6018 – but i do not believe it will go much higher than that for the reason i mentioned above.

later today we have the consumer sentiment report, it is expected to fall – dues giving the Fed less reasons to raise interest rates on August.
A much better than expect number might drive the EURUSD back to the lower levels of 1.57 and down.

Main events today (time in GMT)

1:30pm USD Trade Balance Forecast -62.5B Previous -60.9B

2:55pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Forecast 55.5 Previous 56.4

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment = Survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions; The level of economic confidence is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;

latest release
https://customers.reuters.com/community/university/default.aspx?

happy trading

[annet1983]

today in usa they release new iphone 3 G , u think it will effect dollar somehow, they expecting big demmand on it, may usa economie will go up/?

[BlueinGreen]

not at all, a single event like a company releasing a new product has no serious affect on the Forex market or the U.S economy for that matter.
the U,S economy is so big, that the affect would be almost like a small drop of water in a swimming pool.
It might affect the stock price of Apple – the company who makes iphone, and it might affect the stock price of Apple's competitors in the long run. but this would be just about the end of the line.

What did affect the Forex market yesterday – was a few very stormy trading hours on the U,S stock market.
two huge corporations connected with the credit market in U,S (which is now in a serious crisis ) the first one Fannie Mae and the other Freddie Mac had lost 40% of their value on opening ball.
This caused some panic, and some havey dollar selling in return.