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Trading news regarding major announcements in the financial world.

Will the FOMC cut the rate again?

Postby zoe147 on 30 Jan 2008

Some volatility is seen in early US session after mixed data from US, ahead of FOMC. Dollar tried to rebound after the release of much stronger than expected ADP employment report which showed 130k job growth in the private sector in Jan, comparing to expectation of 45k. However, the attempt quickly fades after disappointing Q4 GDP result which showed merely 0.6% annualized growth rate, slowest pace in five years, sharply lower from prior quarter's 4.9% and even weaker than expectation of 1.2%. Personal consumption also slowed sharply from 2.8% to 2.0%.

But after all, main focus today is on the FOMC rate announcement. Economists generally expect a 50bps cut from Fed today bringing the federals rate down to 3.00%. In addition to the actual announcement, the vote split as well as the accompany statement will be closely watched. Some new faces will be voting for the decision today, with FOMC's regular annual rotation. Rosengren, a relative dove on inflation, will be replaced by Plosser, a resolute anti-inflation hawk. Fisher and Pianalto; both also have reputations as hawks on inflation and Stern, a neutral, will also rotate in. Markets will look into the voting pattern and the balance of hawks and doves in the \"new fed\"

The statement, as usual will be heavily scrutinized for hints on next policy change. In particular, markets will look into chance in Fed's description of the financial markets. The Fed said that broader financial market conditions have continued to deteriorate and credit has tightened further\" in last week's statement.
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