eToro – Forex Trading Forum

[BlueinGreen]

Morning all,

To those of you who are following my posts for the last two months , i am happy to say that my long term target for USDJPY from around 104 to 110 was finally reached yesterday.
I have to admit, i did not expect it to be reached so quickly, but there you go.
I started closing positions above 109.5 and all the why until 109.95 ( 110 was yet to be printed -but i am not planning on staying in the market just to find out if this resistance level can be breached any time soon).
right now i have only one long position on USDJPY left which i intend to close later today.

I want to specify once more that the bullish move we have seen on the dollar the last few days was pretty much driven by falling oil price- which is now traded at around $118 per barrel , from a top of around $142 per barrel only a few weeks ago.

later on today we have the European Central Bank meeting. The market expect the ECB to leave rates on hold at 4.25%.

But of course the interesting thing to follow is the statement and press conference which follows.
Trichet ( the head of the ECB) has little choice but to admit that euro zone growth is slowing – on the other hand inflation in Europe is twice the size of what the ECB had targeted at the begging of the year.
If Trichet will point more on to the inflationary problem – this might lead to a stronger EUR in the near future. Otherwise, the dollar would probably continue its advance against EUR.


Events today -

9:00am GBP Halifax HPI m/m Forecast -1.5% Previous -2.0%

11:00am EUR German Industrial Production m/m Forecast 0.8% Previous -2.4%

12:00pm GBP Official Bank Rate Forecast 5% Previous 5%

12:45pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate Forecast 4.25% Previous 4.25%

1:30pm CAD Building Permits m/m Forecast -1.0% Previous 1.1%

1:30pm EUR ECB Press Conference

1:30pm USD Unemployment Claims Forecast 420k previous 448K

3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales m/m Forecast -1.0% previous -4.7%


Happy Trading

[jensen7]

I'm new to this but this article was very well done. I believe that with analysis like this anyone can make it in forex. Do you have other places to find your analysis?
regards,

Jensen

[BlueinGreen]

Hey jensen7

thank you for the feedback,

making money in the forex market is not always an easy task , at least not in the beginning.

The secret behind any profitable trader – is good analysis of the market (as you mentioned) together with a sound risk management program.

i know many traders who can predict the market much less than 50% of the time, but they still make money thanks to their tight risk management – they make sure that when they are right the profit will be significant enough to cover their former losses. on the other hand , there are many great analysts who can predict the market on most occasions , but fail to profit from their predictions as they possess poor risk control qualities.

as a new trader you should consider both of these factors. A common mistake of new guys is to concentrate on analysis alone.

For now, i post my analysis on etoro's forum only,
hopping that this community will develop further as a tool for forex traders. f


good luck

[MannieNL]

I'm getting nervous with long standing positions open and try only short term ones. Even though I'm just doing the trading for fun for now, I already get scared when I see a move I did not expect and I try to close it immediately - resulting in a loss. Perhaps because I'm not reading the market as you do. I'm amazed that you can read the market very well.